Adam Schaeffer, Guest Contributor : Is Obama really going to win a second term?
Source: ricochet.com - Sunday, September 16, 2012
Many thanks to Diane for the kind introduction of me and my wife, Sabrina (who might be joining in from time to time). Itâs great to be part of the conversation here at Ricochet! Iâve been told that Iâm bad at small-talk, so letâs get right to the point . . . is Obama really going to win a second term? Letâs face it, this is the big question. The one that keeps supporters and opponents of the President up at night. Itâs why each new poll shift and fundraising total sends the politically-obsessed on both sides of the aisle swinging toward relief or depression. For Romney supporters/Obama opponents, it seems preposterous to think the President could win with the sputtering economy, a fizzled âstimulus,â Obamacare, and all the trouble in the world. And yet . . . the polls show a tight election, with Romney typically close but trailing. The election forecast models mostly predict an Obama victory. These models look primarily at economic indicators and presidential approval from recent polling. The economic indicators, at least those used in the models, are bad for Obama but not so bad that they tank his prospects. Same goes for the Presidentâs standing in the polls. But the polls donât tell us who will make up the actual electorate this November. Polling does a pretty good job of telling us a few things; a) the opinion, right now, of all adults, b) the opinion of all those who say they are registered voters (some
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